Details
Key Signal
Afreximbank's African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026 (published March 30, 2026) forecasts intra-African trade rising 10% to $230bn in 2026, up from $210bn in 2025.
What Is Changing
49 of 55 African Union member states have deposited ratification instruments (Eritrea has not signed at all); the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) entered into force in 2025, reducing cross-border payment friction; manufacturing and agri-food are expected to grow from 46% to 48-50% of intra-African trade flows, offsetting a slowdown in commodity trade.
Why It Matters
After years of being described in conditional terms — what AfCFTA 'could' unlock — 2026 reporting marks a shift toward measurable implementation progress, with the harder work of rules-of-origin negotiation and services-trade schedules now the dominant story over ratification politics.
Outlook
Afreximbank's growth scenario assumes continued political stability, regional integration and easing geopolitical tensions; the intra-African share of total African trade is projected to reach 16% in 2026, up from a 15% recent average.
Key Risks
Rules-of-origin negotiations remain unresolved for some product categories; the growth forecast is explicitly described by Afreximbank as an 'optimistic scenario' contingent on assumptions that may not hold.