Policy Details
What Changes
Replaces project-by-project fiscal negotiations with a transparent, rules-based investment framework for deep offshore oil and gas developments. Establishes published eligibility criteria and tax remission terms applicable across all qualifying deep offshore projects. Authorises NNPC Limited to amend eligible Production Sharing Contracts. Requires qualifying projects to maximise execution within Nigeria wherever commercially and technically feasible
Who Is Affected
Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, ENI, Chevron and all international operators in Nigeria's deep offshore blocks. NNPC Limited as PSC counterparty. Nigerian engineering firms, fabrication yards, marine logistics operators, subsea contractors and project finance advisors. Anchor project: Bonga South West ($10–20 billion), FID targeted 2027.
Why It Matters
Nigeria's most significant upstream oil and gas policy reform in years. Ends decades of one-off negotiations that deterred investment by creating uncertainty. Competing directly with Guyana, Suriname, Namibia and Brazil for the same globally mobile deepwater capital. The framework — not just Bonga — is the story: it covers all future deep offshore FIDs.
Expected Impact
Up to $50 billion in deep offshore investment mobilised across multiple qualifying projects over the medium term. Bonga South West FID expected 2027 — the first test of whether the framework delivers. Procurement and local content activity in engineering, fabrication and marine logistics once FID is confirmed.
Risks / Uncertainties
Oil price dependency — framework improves terms but global capex decisions depend on price environment. FID on Bonga South West not yet confirmed. Partner consent among co-venturers remains a challenge. Nigeria competing against newer geology in Guyana and Namibia with fewer legacy disputes.
Commercial Opportunity
Engineering, fabrication, marine logistics, technical services and project management firms with Nigerian capacity should begin positioning for Bonga South West and the downstream procurement it will trigger. Legal and financial advisors should be reviewing PSC amendment processes and the eligibility criteria under the Order