Genesis Intelligence Tool

The Risk Monitor

Africa's only structured risk assessment framework for infrastructure projects — combining a Funding Security Tier (AAA to C) with a six-dimension risk profile across Political, Regulatory, Funding, Execution, Currency and Force Majeure risk. Every rating is manually graded and reviewed.

3Projects Rated

8Genesis Records

0Investment Grade (A and above)

7Funding Security Tiers

6Risk Dimensions Assessed

Our Methodology

◈Funding tiers based on binding capital commitment status — not project ambition

◈Risk dimensions graded independently then combined into an overall score

◈AAA and AA ratings reviewed by senior advisory board before publication

◈All ratings carry a review date and are updated as conditions change

Funding Security Scale

AAA Fully Secured AA Largely Secured A Substantially Funded BBB Partially Funded BB Funding Advanced B Early Stage C High Risk

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As intelligence records are published with Risk Monitor ratings, they will appear here. Ratings are added manually by The Project Herald's editorial team and reviewed before publication.

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How We Rate

Funding Security Tiers

AAA Fully Secured Fully backed by binding commitments from international development banks, multilateral lenders or sovereign guarantees. Financial close achieved or contractually guaranteed.

AA Largely Secured Majority of financing committed by lead financier(s). Minor funding gaps remain but project is on a clear path to financial close.

A Substantially Funded Anchor capital confirmed. Syndication or co-financing underway. Financial close expected within a defined timeline.

BBB Partially Funded Anchor capital in place but significant funding gap remains. Co-financing not yet committed. Execution risk elevated.

BB Funding Advanced MOU or Letter of Intent signed. No binding commitment. Financial close pending significant remaining steps.

B Early Stage Expressions of interest received. No binding capital commitment. Project is in early development or feasibility phase.

C High Risk Dependent on government or municipal budget without external backing. High probability of delay or cancellation. No confirmed financing structure.

Risk Dimensions

Political Risk Exposure to government instability, election risk, sanctions, nationalisation threat or active conflict in the project country.

Regulatory Risk Risk of licensing disputes, environmental injunctions, court challenges, ministerial reversals or regulatory framework changes affecting the project.

Funding Risk Probability that committed capital does not materialise — lead financier withdrawal, co-financing failure or government counterpart fund shortfall.

Execution / Construction Risk Construction and delivery risk — contractor capability, supply chain resilience, site conditions, schedule slippage and cost overrun probability.

Currency / FX Risk Currency depreciation and convertibility risk affecting project revenues, debt servicing and investor returns in hard currency terms.

Force Majeure Risk Exposure to events beyond contractual control — conflict escalation, extreme weather, pandemic or natural disaster — that could suspend or terminate the project.

Overall Risk Score is calculated as a weighted average of all six dimensions. Critical in any single dimension elevates the overall score regardless of average.